Do you think the act of the host looking behind the stage suddenly changes the 33% probability that you picked the car?
Needless to say I work with quit a few non graduating high school students. So sometimes I need to explaing myself clear in all languages, even when I only understand English so so. Lets go guys and girls stay with me. When the game show host first gave us three doors to choose from I feel not one of us had a problem feeling we had a 33.3% chance of picking the right door. why did you and I say 33.3% chance of winning because 3doors X 33.3% = 100% right. Now when door 3 is opened and is a goat that 33.3% needs to be eliminated from the starting point and needs to be divided equally in half which is % and added to door one and two evenly, which now brings doors one and two up to 50% each. Cut and dry. If I picked door one and my girlfriend picked door two and we both switched to the other door that would mean I would have a 66.6% chance and she would have a 66.6% chance of winning. 66.6% + 66.6% adds up to 133.2% now can we all see that this is not possible. Can we see that 133.2% would sound like a politician speaking. I hope you all can see this now in what ever language you read or what ever politician you are hearing. 133.2% is not what it can be. It can only be 100%. If I change my door and get 66.6% you can be rest a sure my girl friend will want her 66.6% as well. This is the problem we all want more than 100% and no one can give us more than 100%. Therefore door two can not get the 33.3% added to it and door one get nothing right?
Hi there Rob, I see what you are saying, but you’re forgetting one thing. If your girlfriend had picked door #2, it probably would’ve been your door #1 that would’ve been opened with a goat, so you can’t think about it that way. The reason is because the door that the host opens depends upon where the car is. The host is tricking you. He’s gonna change his door selection so that it will always be 66.6% chance of it being the door you didn’t pick. That’s the catch.
It goes ONE person at a time, not two
Say you pick door #1 initially. We all agree that you have a 33% chance of winning the car. Then you ask the host to go behind Xdating desktop the stage and find a goat and tell you which door has that goat. Of course not, you said so yourself in your message. You have 1/3 chance that you picked the car, ALWAYS, no matter what happens. You can NEVER change the past and that 33% is FIXED IN STONE. So stop thinking of it like that. The 33% does not change to 66%, it does not change to 50%. It STAYS 33% and has to.
What does change is that the host was kind enough to let you pick the TWO doors (door #2 AND door #3). So when he asks if you want to change, he’s not asking, do you want to switch from door #1 to door #2. He is ACTUALLY asking, do you want to change your selection from door #1 to BOTH door #2 AND door #3. And of course you’d say yes, because picking two doors is always better than picking one.